Contribution
of IGCC & PFBC to Global
Fuel Consumption Trends
Peter Luby & Miro R. Susta
Switzerland
POWERGEN-EUROPE 1998, Milan, Italy
June 1998
ABSTRACT
Fuel consumption trends in power generation industry have
been clear and transparent in the last decade. Hegemony of Natural Gas
(NG) fuel and Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) power generation plant
projects was obvious in those territories in which NG was accessible.
Superior parameters in thermal efficiency, operating costs, and
environmental benefits were criteria which have simplified the
decision-making process for those project developers who were having
access to NG. Their dilemma
was not “what kind of power plant to built” any more. Their problem
has become reduced to the question “what kind of combined cycle power
plant to built”.
Statistics compilators therefore have easier life today than their
colleagues from forecasting institutions. Really, if we want to predict
anything today we have to face more counter-effecting influences than
before.
One of them is the increasing share of the independent power
generators world-wide. Their
aggressive business philosophy prefers short-time investment return
periods. These are guaranteed by the NG technologies.
The other is the ever-increasing pressure of environmental
legislation in most countries. This also favors NG as the dominant choice
in green-field projects.
There are more of them, but there is one which has
materialistic and therefore ultimate force: Worldwide deposits of NG are
restricted. NG resources are enough for half century, while deposits of
coal are enough for another 235.
If we suppose a half century limit for NG it means that the tension in the market will become much earlier. Deposits of NG exploitation will be ever deeper and more remote.
Costs of the NG distribution infrastructure investment and maintenance will be
growing. Although similar trend is inevitable with coal exploitation and
distribution infrastructure this will be delayed. This effect is time-
spread over a century dimension and therefore moderated within two-decades
outlook for coal.
On the other side, competitive power of NG may further be reduced by its possible conversion as the feedstock in the hydrocarbon processing industry.
This is not the case for deposits of coal. New exploitation technologies, like underground gasification will amplify competitive power of this fuel. Even more realistic is the "coal by wire strategy", predicted for China and other countries with under developed power transmission infrastructure.
